⏰ The PPI and CPI data and Powell‘s speech released by the US at 20:30 today will once again affect the judgment of the Fed‘s interest rate cut node, which will also cause market fluctuations. CPI and PPI are two commonly used indicators in economics to measure the health of the economy. CPI reflects the consumer price index, and PPI reflects the producer price index. The two data are related. I personally believe that this CPI data will be lower than expected, which is beneficial to the market, and inflation will enter a turning point next, prompting the Fed to cut interest rates. Because this year is an election year, the last CPI exceeded expectations, and Biden expressed his expectations for interest rate cuts. However, the Fed is an independent institution and is not influenced by the US government. The Fed‘s interest rate cut is based on economic data. Powell also mentioned in his speech that if inflation decreases, the Fed will naturally consider cutting interest rates. The inflation data is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Although the Fed cannot control it, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is under the control of the Fed. Since the Fed wants to see data, Biden can make small moves here in order to be re-elected. He can present the inflation data showing a downward trend to the Fed. The Fed will naturally follow the leader‘s will and lower interest rates earlier, pushing up the stock market and promoting the economy, which can also allow Biden to present good results for re-election.
If the data meets expectations, it will be favorable for the market. BTC is expected to form a head and shoulders pattern (Figure 1) and maintain support around 59500-60000. If it rebounds and breaks through the 64500 resistance level, the bullish trend will continue to reverse and rise, with a target of 67300/68500.
If inflation data unexpectedly becomes unfavourable for the market, it will follow the second wedge pattern (Figure 2), continue the downward trend in the fifth wave, and then retrace after a second probe before moving up again.
Whether it is the first type or the second type, there is not much difference for us spot traders. The outlook for the future is still bullish. Currently, the big trend structure of BTC has not reached the top of the bull market. The current formation is only a rise in the upward trend relay. Regardless of the adjustment period or the current price position of altcoin zone, they have a good investment risk-reward ratio. The bottoms of many altcoins have already been seen on April 14th. It is meaningless to deliberately wait for BTC at this time. The current spot position is recommended to be 60-70%. There is still a chance for bulls to counterattack above 61500 in the evening. The current market is full of noise. It is meaningless to shout "rise" when it rises and shout "fall" when it falls. Our operating strategy has never changed. Buying spot in batches on dips is the way to go. It is particularly important to learn to find value information in the noise. From joy to greed, from panic to numbness and despair, the market will reward you with equivalent returns after the second stage of the bull market starts.